In my previous post, Global warming: Liberals dispute Russian scientists, I responded to a commenter who claimed that an article disputing global warming by the respected Russian scientist Dr. Sorokhtin was a hoax.
Among the complaints was that the commenter had been unable to find information about another scientist, Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, or his research cited in the article.
As I pointed out, the commenter clearly didn’t know what he was talking about, as I was able to track down Dr. Abdussamatov quite easily. Now, Dr. Abdussamatov has replied to my e-mail and sent me links to the paper in question:
In a nutshell, his study cites a 200-year cycle of solar energy output which he believes accounts for much of global warming. This cycle is currently winding down, and Abdussamatov predicts global temperatures will decrease in coming years, bottoming out sometime in the middle of the 21st century.
Note that this paper was written in 2005 and it includes the statement (translated, which is why the wording may sound strange), “If in 2008-2010 cessation of the global warming continues, this will provide indisputable evidence in favor of assertion that the Sun cannot warm the Earth as before, and the anthropogenic global warming is a Great Myth.” Here we are now in 2008, temperatures have been flat for 10 years, and British scientists are predicting 2008 will be the coldest year since 2000.
The hallmark of real science is the accuracy of its predictions. We still have to wait awhile to see if Dr. Abdussamatov’s prediction bears out, but at this moment, actual temperatures look to be in line with his theory. It will be interesting to find out the ultimate results.
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Climate obviously has changed and will continue to change. The observation that ice is melting does not show that human activity is the cause. The assertion that humans are or ever can have a significant influence on climate by limiting the use of fossil fuel (a.k.a. limiting human production of carbon dioxide) is not supported by any historical record. Avoid the group-think and de facto censorship by Climate Scientists. Directly interrogate official government data that taxpayers have paid for from ORNL and NOAA as follows: If the carbon dioxide level from Lawdome, Antarctica http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/lawdome.combined.dat is graphed on the same time scale as fossil fuel usage from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.htm it is discovered that the current carbon dioxide level increase started about 1750, a century before any significant fossil fuel use. If average earth temperature since 1880 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html is graphed on the same time scale as fossil fuel use it is discovered that there is no correlation between rising fossil fuel use and average global temperature to 1976. The asserted hypothesis that, since 1976, increasing carbon dioxide level has caused the temperature to rise is refuted by the carbon dioxide level from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/vostok.html and earth temperature from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/temp/vostok/vostok.1999.temp.dat determined from the Vostok, Antarctica ice cores. If these are graphed on a higher resolution time scale it is discovered that the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide level lags earth temperature change by hundreds of years. If Lawdome and recent carbon dioxide data and Vostok and recent temperature are plotted on the same graph since 1000 AD (or before) it is observed that temperature oscillates up to ±1.5ºC (half pitch about 100 yr) while carbon dioxide level remains essentially unchanged (between 9000BC and 1750AD). This will also show that the average global temperature 200 years ago was about the same as now, 400 years ago was significantly higher than now and current rate of temperature change is fairly typical. Recent measurements show that average earth temperatures in 2006 and 2007 were actually lower than in 1998. As shown at http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berner.pdf ,for most of earth’s history carbon dioxide level has been several times higher than the present. The conclusion from all this is that carbon dioxide change does not cause significant climate change. Actions based on the human-caused global warming mistake put American freedom and prosperity at risk.
Comment by Dan Pangburn — January 16, 2008 @ 8:54 am
Isn’ t it strange that most scientists do not talk about International Truce, birth control (while aggressive China just announced no limits to its overpopulation…) and reconciliation Mutual-aid autarky farms, no matter of what climate we have?
Comment by Kids Rescuing ! — March 10, 2008 @ 7:07 am